Wednesday, August 2, 2006

Israel's tactics seem confused, unless their headed for Damascus

What's being spun in the media with regards to Israeli tactics(or lack there of) in south Lebanon paints them as red faced Zealot kicking some butt in reponse to the killing and kiddnaping of several of it's soldiers. Because smashing things around the house isn't stemming the rage, like a rage-aholic, first it's the dishes, then the walls, now an assault.

This view appeals to everyone concerned; it reflects a adolescent reaction seen amongst the ignorant; Western media eat it up because it's an simple story confussed busy western voters havn't time for depth.

For Iran and Syria, thinking of their enemy as confused or insane provides them a convenient rationalization to avoid thinking a regional war might be at hand, and thus preparing for it.

If one wanted to take Damascus a number of 'musts' exist; Firstly, ensure the war doesn't leak out of the immediate area, Israel, Lebanon, Syria. Secondly, the Syrian Army must be drawn to a fight and its mechanized capability destroyed, preferably in the Syrian desert. Thirdly US forces must end up in control of Damascus when the fighting stops.

To accomplish this, imagine a 'hard cup' southwest of Damascus, accompanied by a small operation to secure the Turkish boarder to the north; an advance on the centre by a large creeping force, and a fast main force that slices along the Jordanian boarder, completing the encirclement of Damascus.

What caught my interest today was the fighting in Ba'labbak. With-in this plan the city represents the northern arch of that 'hard cup'.

UPDATE: August 9, 2006 Thinking the same thing at, 7 days later, no connection.

Also, check my link from the article to the opinion of Edward Luttwak, senior adviser to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. He thinks the best way to stabalize Iraq is disengagement. With in this plan US forces would withdraw to US bases inside Iraq. Using air power and special operations commandos US commanders could create a 'Balance of Tensions' inside Iraq. This frees US forces to then 'stabalize' other regional players; like Syria and Iran.


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