Sunday, August 21, 2016

2016 a Global Warming 'turning point' as new normal becomes Thousand Year Events


A "thousand year event" means that --- according to the scientific data that we have accumulated over the past 200 years; plus a data base of all accounts of weather events that have been written down since writing was invented --- mathematicians have calculated a complex function that derives the probability that this or that weather event is likely to happen at this time and place. The result is a probability percentage.

Climate scientists use this formula to calculate the rarity (or not) of specific events by loading into this formula, weather data from the area in question over a specific period there ... and out pops the percentage chance of this sort of event happening there.

So in an event like that which happened in West Virginia June 23-24, 2016, it turned out to be likely to happen 0.001% (one, one thousandth) in any given year. So that adds up to the event probably happening once every thousand years. The percentage is predicated on the time spread of the data imputed (in the West Vierginia event described below, the meteorologist used a 30-year local data set spanning 1976 to 2006).

So ... as 1,000 year events happen more and more, climate scientists may be tempted to add data sets that include more recent data - and the algorithm will begin to pop out percentages that will reduce the improbability of these specific events happening - so this sort of events might slowly (based on what data set is used) become '500-year events'.

We have to be careful that we 'stay' the model at the point where this kind of weather started to become the new normal. And the new normal (for now) appears to be the kind of weather events that we're seeing this year - this year we have seen 3 of these 1000-year events in North America1,2,3 (so far).

I believe that Climate Scientists - starting now - should not feed current data points into the model to refine it's accuracy - keep using the pre-2016 data sets with regard to calculating the effects of global warming - because this is the Turning Point.

2016 is the turning point - the point at which the current record separates from the existing 'normal'.

This needs to be done so that over a person's life-time we will have a base-line from which to understand what is happening. So that in 20 years we will have within the popular zeitgeist, an understanding of the increase in 1,000-year events - and thus civilization as a whole - in the populist sense - will have the information to help them make informed choices (because we're obviously not making those kinds of choices now).


West Virginia 1000 year flood event - June 23-24, 2016
Via Climate.gov 2016/07/08 West Virginia 1000 year flood June 23-24 - 24 hour accumulation map by Charleston, WV Forecast Office meteorologist, Nick Webb | https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/1000yr24hrRainfall_nwebb.jpg


Ellicott City 1000 year flood event - July 30, 2016
Baltimore Sun - 2016/07/31 | Ellicott City gets rainfall expected only once every millennium | http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bal-wx-ellicott-city-gets-rainfall-expected-only-once-every-few-hundred-years-20160731-story.html


Louisiana 1000 year flood event - August 9-14, 2016


___________



1 Climate.gov - 2016/07/08 | 'Thousand-year' downpour led to deadly West Virginia floods - by Tom DiLiberto | https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/thousand-year-downpour-led-deadly-west-virginia-floods

2 Baltimore Sun - 2016/07/31 | Ellicott City gets rainfall expected only once every millennium | http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bal-wx-ellicott-city-gets-rainfall-expected-only-once-every-few-hundred-years-20160731-story.html

3 The Real News - 2016/08/19 | Devastating Floods in Louisiana Are the Sign of Things to Come | http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=17031



mh

Monday, August 8, 2016

U.S. Empire's dysfunctional global economy is twisting into an Imperial War Economy


I think renowned Australian journalist and film-maker John Pilger is watching the US economy move from one driven primarily by consumerism backed by global military dominance, to one driven more and more by Imperial War.

He doesn't say it; that's what I've come to in thinking about these things.

JOHN PILGER - A WORLD WAR HAS BEGUN: BREAK THE SILENCE


I've always wanted to record the history of a civilization as it evolved towards monumental moments in it's history - like is recorded in some pre-WWII history writing that posited that humankind presupposes it's history - the idea by,
".. German historian, Wolfgang Mommsen, argued that the cascade of crises, from partial mobilizations to regional wars to popular panics since the start of the century, had, by 1914, reached a kind of critical mass. Describing what he calls “a topos of inevitable war,” "

A culture begins to live the history it most fears will come about; and in doing so creates the very future they most fear.

Not that any informed or sane, person would wish for war to come to their family, their neighbourhood - but within a mind set of undoubted belief that it IS coming - thus they 'believe' it into being.

You can see an example of this in the increase in inequality in America (and the liberal democratic capitalist west generally) since 1980's. From then until now, fear has driven the American Economy more so then it usually does.

Fear of all kinds - but originally and most importantly I think - fear of the imminent collapse of the American global economy project; combined with a great fear about the collapse of the functioning of the Earth itself - due to climate change.

This fear has lead led to voracious greed amoungst the politicians, the bureaucrats that run the corporations, and the pretenders on the stock market trading floor - a race to become a sort of "Dr No - or a Mr. Goldfinger" - a narcissistic fantasy where ruthless capitalists compete to become Nations unto themselves.

I write the outline for the screen play:
An Options Trader holes up on an tropical island with his vast wealth, ruling over a city of servant-slaves with his secret weapon technology and private army ... living a long life of sloth and grandeur riding out a global apocalypse and emerging as Earth CEO - the richest, most powerful (and most at-ease?) gentleman to have ever lived.
Should be a blockbuster.

The America Empire, it turns out, is a Freudian Oedipus complex myth! And, I'm getting my wish to record a societal slide into unreality, and perhaps a good record of the ultimate 'monumental moment of history' ... the end of it.

We all have an interest in peace - even the 1% - and so it is our last, best hope. In 2003 the people of the planet rallied in their 10's of millions against the Iraq War (and later found out, were absolutely right to do so)
"According to the French academic Dominique Reynié, between January 3 and April 12, 2003, 36 million people across the globe took part in almost 3,000 protests against the Iraq war."[1]
.. and despite the collapse of the mass media in the post-9-11 psychotic war delirium!

It's time to try again.

There is no choice in the US election - corporate America aims to solve their economic crisis with wars.

Drop your voter registration cards and grab a placard.

Stop the endless war on drugs - redirect police spending to public schools.
Stop the endless war on terrorism - redirect spending to infrastructure jobs and international development.

Dr No - Original Trailer


007 James Bond Goldfinger 1964- Trailer Recut HD 720p




[1] Wikipedia - Protests against the Iraq War | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_the_Iraq_War



mh

Friday, July 29, 2016

DVP Floods Again ... and so did my basement apartment

As soon as they built the fun hill at Corktown Common, the DVP started flooding after every torrential rain.

Dundas from the east side of the Don Valley looking south (camera swivels, so sometimes shows north view)
[07/31/2016 - Correction from an earlier edit where-in I mistakenly wrote that this feed was not being managed well]

That's because the flood plain at the bottom of the man-made canal used to egress southwest. Now it doesn't have the room.

But why do we have torrential rains all the time now?

Climate Change?

NO! - Say it ain't so!

It is so.

The City of Toronto has not addressed the issue - they minimize and obfuscate.

The last time this hit the media, sources idea-ed that we raise the DVP ... but that would make the maximum high crest higher than it is now!

The issue is - stop draining our streets into the f*king valley!

(Oh ... but that means we're going to have to change!)


mh